Casino and Luck fromn Greg Elder

The truth is casinos rely on math, not luck. They want YOU to rely on luck because they know that in the end math will win the day. Every game in the casino is mathematically based. There is a mathematical formula that guarantees the house will win. What they don’t want gamblers to understand is that mathematics and skill can increase the chances of a gambler’s success. In fact, advantage gamblers turn the tables and have the mathematics in their favor. Casinos really don’t like when that happens!
Luck determines short term success. Math dictates success over the long haul. If you go to a casino once a week, play for four hours on a slot machine with a 90% payback (10% house advantage), for the next twenty years, the math dictates that you will lose money no matter how lucky you are. There is no way to overcome the 10% disadvantage over that period of time. Now, if you go to a casino once a year and play the same machine for four hours, you might be ahead after ten years. In the first example, you will be playing a total of 4160 hours which is large enough to guarantee the casino success. In the second example, you are only playing for 40 hours which isn’t large enough mathematically to dictate that you will lose.

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